全球气候变化下南海诸岛保护优先区识别分析

全球变化下,珊瑚礁保护区是保护生物多样性、增强珊瑚礁对气候变暖抵抗力的有效方式,而维持珊瑚礁弹性是其核心内容。针对珊瑚礁最具有威胁性的热压力因子,基于南海1982—2009年卫星观测海表面温度（SST）数据和CMIP5加拿大地球系统模式CanESM2模型预估的2006—2100年南海SST数据构建热压力强度模型,从维持珊瑚礁弹性的角度识别IPCC RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下南海诸岛保护优先区。结果表明：RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下13%左右的南海诸岛珊瑚礁识别为保护优先区。根据热压力强度与珊瑚抵抗力及避难所关系,西沙群岛七连屿和晋卿岛近年观测与未来预估的热压力强度均比较低,在保障其服务功能的基础上建议实施完全保护;东沙群岛东沙环礁和中沙环礁排洪滩近年观测急性热压力强度较高但未来预估热压力强度较低,建议实施50%禁止利用保护;中沙群岛黄岩岛近年观测和未来预估的急性热压力强度均比较低,建议实施50%多用途保护。南沙群岛有14%左右的珊瑚礁识别为保护优先区,根据其热压力强度可实施30%~100%禁止利用保护或30%~50%多用途保护。RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下的南海诸岛保护优先区及保护对策,可为维持珊瑚礁生态弹性及应对全球气候变化提供重要的参考价值。     

基于高斯两步移动搜寻法的村镇避难场所可达性研究

避难场所可达性是指避难场所与受灾居民之间的通达性,即灾害发生时,避难人员通过避难疏散通道到达避难场所的难易程度,是评价避难场所布局合理性的重要指标。本研究结合高斯两步移动搜寻法和网络分析法,从供需双向出发对村镇地区避难场所进行可达性分析。2种方法的结合,既充分考虑了需求点与设施点的相互作用,又充分考虑了设施点的吸引力随距离的衰减关系,并基于实际道路,以步行疏散时间作为搜索半径,降低了传统研究中因忽略供需间相互作用及实际距离而引起的可达性结果的误差。最后,以神农架松柏镇区为例,验证该方法的实际应用价值。结果表明,该方法能够有效测定村镇地区避难场所的空间可达性,同时,基于GIS软件可以直观地揭示研究区域内避难场所可达性空间分布差异。该方法可为制定科学的村镇防灾减灾规划提供方法支持。     

Properties of geogrid-reinforced marine slope due to the groundwater level changes

Evaluation of slope stability, especially in the absence of a proper bed such as marine soils, is one of the most important issues in geotechnical engineering. Using geogrid layers to enhance the strength and stability of embankments is regarded as a commendable stabilization method. On the other hand, groundwater level erratically fluctuates in coastal areas. Therefore, the aim of this research is to study the effects of groundwater level changes on stability of a geogrid-reinforced slope on loose marine soils in Qeshm Island, Iran. At first, geotechnical properties of the site were obtained by comprehensive series of geotechnical laboratory and in situ tests. Then, by simultaneous changes of groundwater level and several parameters such as embankment slope, loading, geogrid length, geogrid number, and tensile strength of geogrid, different characteristics such as embankment safety factor (SF), vertical and horizontal displacements at embankment top and embankment base were studied. It was observed that groundwater level had significant effects on behavior of the embankment. For most of the observations, by decreasing the groundwater level, the displacements decreased and consequently safety factor increased. Increasing the length, number, and tensile strength of geogrid led to the reduction of displacements and an increase in the safety factor.     

中国省域尺度17部门资本存量的时空特征分析

随着灾害强度、频率以及承灾体暴露的增加,自然灾害造成的损失日益严重。资本存量作为承灾体的经济暴露指标之一,是灾害损失评估的前提和基础。针对目前中国缺乏省域尺度长时间序列的经济部门分类的资本存量数据基础,论文通过永续盘存法,建立了2003—2015年中国大陆31省17部门的资本存量数据库,并分析其时空特征。结果显示：① 全国总资本存量与灾害直接损失的年际变化均呈增加趋势。省域尺度上,通过相关性分析显示,在99%置信度水平上,两者呈显著正相关(r=0.3)。② 时间上,各省17部门资本存量基本也呈增加趋势,但增速不同。在各部门增速最快的省份中,黑龙江省的居民服务、修理和其他服务业增速最快,增长约454.3倍;其次是青海省的租赁和商务服务业(398.3倍)、江苏省的金融业(295.1倍)、安徽省的科学研究和技术服务业(125.1倍)等。③ 空间上,2015年各省17部门资本存量最多的前4个部门分别是房地产业,工业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,水利、环境和公共设施管理业,占比均在60%以上;且这4个部门资本存量暴露最多的省份是江苏省和广东省。该结果有助于从时空角度了解各省各部门资本存量暴露情况,为各省灾害风险管理者的防灾减灾工作提供重要的参考价值。     

滨海城市竖向避难场所选址可靠性评价与若干问题探讨

关注滨海城市竖向避难场所的选址可靠性问题，首先深化确立“竖向避难场所”概念；然后构建竖向避难场所选址可靠性评价模型，综合自然地理要素和建成环境要素，从与灾害直接作用相关的选址暴露性、与应急交通相关的选址敏感性、与应急服务相关的选址适应性3个维度展开，搭建3级评价指标体系；再以天津滨海新区为例、聚焦滨海城市潮洪灾害和人口安全矛盾的集核——临港城区展开实证研究，借助ArcGIS分类与可视化发现：高低可靠性选址之间具有明显的空间分异，可以分解为灾害暴露性的“近岸高?远岸低”分异、交通敏感性的“外围高?中心低”分异、服务适应性的“中心与沿河高?外围低”兼“近港高?远港低”分异。同时发现：商业设施用地选址价值较高，在高可靠性选址中占比第一；中小学和社会福利设施用地选址价值最高，在高可靠性选址中占比第二；文化科研和娱乐康体设施用地在高可靠性选址中占比最小。针对临港城区实证研究结果，提出滨海城市竖向避难场所选址及可靠性提升对策。     

广西海洋资源概况及开发刍议

广西海洋资源丰富 ,品种繁多 ,为了更好开发 ,建议从法制、宣传教育、普及海洋资源有关知识 ,提高人们整体素质做起 ,进一步抓住机遇 ,合理开发 ,才能取得良好效益 ,达到预定目标     

西南矿区山体崩塌成因机制分析及防治对策

西南地区的矿区具有相似的地理、地质环境,通过四川芙蓉煤矿白岩崩塌的典型实例,对西南矿区山体崩塌的成灾环境进行调查研究,揭示了西南矿区山体崩塌的成因机制,并简要提出了对该煤矿开发与综合治理建议,指出了加强防治工作的紧迫性,强调开展系统工程防灾的重要性,并为该煤矿解决正常采掘接替及工作面的布置问题作出了科学的指导.     

西宁盆地泥石流类型及其防治意见

概略地叙述了西宁地区的泥石流形成条件和形成机理,并将西宁地区泥石流划分为稀性泥石流类及泥石质泥石流种类。在此基础上提出防治泥石流灾害的意见。     

Tephrochronology and tephrostratigraphy of two Pleistocene continental fossiliferous successions from central Italy

The stratigraphical context of two Middle Pleistocene fossiliferous palaeosols from Central Italy (Abruzzo and Tuscany) have been studied. Small mammals and molluscs occur in both palaeosols, which are covered by tephra layers that were analysed using an interdisciplinary approach. Application of fission‐track dating to apatites separated from the Case Picconetto tephra (Pescara, Abruzzo), yielded an age of 0.48 ± 0.04 Ma, indistinguishable from those previously determined for the Campani Quarry (Lower Valdarno, Tuscany) (0.46 ± 0.05 Ma and 0.48 ± 0.05 Ma). Geochemical and petrographic investigations indicate that these tephra originated from different volcanoes, the Alban Hills Volcanic Complex and the Vico Volcano (Latium) respectively. Small mammal and mollusc assemblages indicate different palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental conditions for the Case Picconetto and Campani Quarry palaeosols. Warm and humid conditions can be inferred for the Campani Quarry site, whereas open and cold conditions can be inferred for Case Picconetto. On the basis of faunal data, fission‐track dates and attribution of tephra to specific volcanic eruptions, we suggest a correlation of these faunas with marine oxygen isotope stage 14 (Case Picconetto) and with marine oxygen isotope stage 11 (Campani Quarry), respectively. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mezen Bay—a key area for understanding Weichselian glaciations in northern Russia

Sediment successions in coastal cliffs around Mezen Bay, southeastern White Sea, record an unusually detailed history of former glaciations, interstadial marine and fluvial events from the Weichselian. A regional glaciation model for the Weichselian is based on new data from the Mezen Bay area and previously published data from adjacent areas. Following the Mikulinian (Eemian) interglacial a shelf‐centred glaciation in the Kara Sea is reflected in proglacial conditions at 100–90 ka. A local ice‐cap over the Timan ridge existed between 75 and 65 ka. Renewed glaciation in the Kara Sea spread southwestwards around 60 ka only, interrupted by a marine inundation, before it advanced to its maximum position at about 55–50 ka. After a prolonged ice‐free period, the Scandinavian ice‐sheet invaded the area from the west and terminated east of Mezen Bay about 17 ka. The previously published evidence of a large ice‐dammed lake in the central Arkhangelsk region, Lake Komi, finds no support in this study. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.